Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 73.3%
Defensive zone
Larkin 74.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 52.8%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 50.5%
50.5%
49.5%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Larkin
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
58.7% (858)
-7.6%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
55.8% (285)
+3.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
62.9% (35)
-14.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +14.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
51.7% (686)
60.1% (599)
Away
53.0% (658)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
52.5%
52.4%
P2
52.7%
63.9%
P3
51.4%
58.5%
OT
61.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
55.7%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |