Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 25 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 47-42 in 89 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 58.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 52.8%
Neutral zone
Hertl 56.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.3%
43.7%
56.3%
Larkin
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
47
-
42
(89 meetings)
47
42
Larkin
Hertl
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
19
18
Larkin
Hertl
37 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
14
Larkin
Hertl
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
15
10
Larkin
Hertl
25 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.3%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
59.2% (1,995)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
46.3% (806)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Larkin has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Larkin
Hertl
Home
53.9% (6,277)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Larkin
Hertl
P1
52.7%
53.6%
P2
53.1%
54.2%
P3
52.0%
55.3%
OT
58.4%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Nov 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 12:28 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 02:21 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 06:27 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:57 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 18:30 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 16:39 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 2 | 11:10 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:45 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 19:39 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 17:06 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 10:22 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 00:29 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 13:40 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 00:58 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |