Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Nosek 48.5% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 68.2%
Defensive zone
Larkin 58.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 58.7%
Result
Dylan Larkin favored at 61.7%
61.7%
38.3%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Larkin
Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
0
1
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
1
0
Larkin
Nosek
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
52.0% (102)
-0.9%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
100.0% (2)
-40.6%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
29.0% (31)
+19.2%
On power play, Nosek has a +40.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (79).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
51.7% (686)
52.0% (50)
Away
53.0% (658)
44.7% (85)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
52.5%
45.0%
P2
52.7%
42.0%
P3
51.4%
55.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
43.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |