Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Larkin on offensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 12 meetings). Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Nosek 53.6% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Larkin leads 17-8 in 25 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 57.4%
Defensive zone
Nosek 77.1%
Neutral zone
Nosek 56.7%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Larkin
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
8
(25 meetings)
17
8
Larkin
Nosek
Last 10: Larkin 6-4 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
11
1
Larkin
Nosek
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
2
3
Larkin
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Larkin
Nosek
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (9,056)
54.9% (2,710)
-3.3%
Power Play
58.6% (2,140)
45.8% (48)
+12.8%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,124)
47.2% (428)
+3.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (7,876).
Larkin shoots left. Nosek is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,959).
Home / Away
Larkin
Nosek
Home
53.9% (6,277)
52.8% (1,656)
Away
51.4% (6,043)
54.7% (1,530)
By Period
Larkin
Nosek
P1
52.7%
52.2%
P2
53.1%
54.1%
P3
52.0%
54.7%
OT
58.4%
75.0%
Final 5 min
53.2%
52.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.7%
Nosek
56.0%▲
50.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 10:28 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:05 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Apr 6, 2025 | 1 | 14:43 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:15 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 06:44 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:56 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 08:19 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 3 | 07:55 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 2 | 02:59 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Jan 2, 2022 | 1 | 13:41 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |