Dylan Larkin vs Zemgus Girgensons
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Larkin wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Girgensons shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.2% vs Girgensons 46.8% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 59.6%
Defensive zone
Girgensons 64.5%
Neutral zone
Larkin 51.0%
Result
Zemgus Girgensons favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Larkin
Girgensons
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Larkin
Girgensons
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Girgensons
0
1
Larkin
Girgensons
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Girgensons
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (915)
45.1% (164)
+6.0%
Power Play
59.4% (261)
50.0% (2)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
48.2% (168)
45.2% (31)
+3.0%
On power play, Larkin has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Girgensons shoots left. Larkin is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (865).
Larkin shoots left. Girgensons is 45.6% vs left-shot opponents (136).
Home / Away
Larkin
Girgensons
Home
51.7% (686)
44.6% (92)
Away
53.0% (658)
45.7% (105)
By Period
Larkin
Girgensons
P1
52.5%
44.2%
P2
52.7%
46.0%
P3
51.4%
45.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
48.0%▼
50.5%
52.4%
Girgensons
58.0%▲
44.5%
45.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Zemgus Girgensons |