Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Strome wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Strome leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 78.0%
Defensive zone
Strome 60.0%
Neutral zone
Strome 71.7%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 70.1%
70.1%
29.9%
Strome
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Strome
MacKinnon
Last 10: Strome 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
2
1
Strome
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
2
Strome
MacKinnon
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
3
1
Strome
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (890)
49.7% (1,038)
+6.7%
Power Play
66.9% (311)
63.7% (157)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
34.4% (32)
+7.3%
On penalty kill, Strome has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Strome is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (391).
Strome shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (886).
Home / Away
Strome
MacKinnon
Home
55.7% (627)
53.1% (618)
Away
62.5% (586)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Strome
MacKinnon
P1
61.7%
49.3%
P2
55.7%
53.0%
P3
60.1%
50.7%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
58.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 10:58 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 07:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:32 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 11:46 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |