Scouting Report
Dylan Strome holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Strome wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 54.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 82.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 78.3%
21.7%
78.3%
Strome
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Strome
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Strome
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
1
0
Strome
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (890)
55.7% (856)
+0.7%
Power Play
66.9% (311)
57.5% (233)
+9.4%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
50.0% (144)
-8.3%
On power play, Strome has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Strome shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Strome
O'Reilly
Home
55.7% (627)
55.5% (616)
Away
62.5% (586)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Strome
O'Reilly
P1
61.7%
58.1%
P2
55.7%
54.9%
P3
60.1%
53.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
58.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |