Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 28 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 51.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 36-25 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 88.8%
Defensive zone
Strome 58.8%
Neutral zone
Strome 80.1%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 72.9%
72.9%
27.1%
Strome
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
36
(61 meetings)
25
36
Strome
O'Reilly
Last 10: Strome 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
15
3
Strome
O'Reilly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
26
Strome
O'Reilly
28 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Strome
8
7
Strome
O'Reilly
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,371)
56.2% (15,290)
-6.1%
Power Play
58.6% (1,532)
58.7% (3,457)
-0.1%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (68)
51.4% (2,826)
-5.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Strome is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,283).
Strome shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Strome
O'Reilly
Home
51.1% (3,968)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
52.3% (4,003)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Strome
O'Reilly
P1
50.5%
55.6%
P2
52.3%
57.0%
P3
52.3%
55.0%
OT
52.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
52.4%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
51.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 18:32 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 14:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 3 | 10:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2026 | 1 | 05:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 08:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 17:44 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 11, 2025 | 1 | 11:42 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:00 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 14:42 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 6, 2024 | 1 | 00:41 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 02:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 19:04 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 03:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 15:28 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:53 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 12:40 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |