Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (58.9% vs 58.1%). Strome wins 60.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 58.3% vs Hertl 57.5% (+0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Strome 51.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 54.3%
Neutral zone
Hertl 55.2%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Strome
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
1
0
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Strome
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
56.4% (890)
58.7% (858)
-2.3%
Power Play
66.9% (311)
55.8% (285)
+11.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
62.9% (35)
-21.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 60.8% vs left-shot opponents (822).
Strome shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
55.7% (627)
60.1% (599)
Away
62.5% (586)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
61.7%
52.4%
P2
55.7%
63.9%
P3
60.1%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
58.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |