Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Strome on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 17 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Strome 51.7% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 23-20 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
Strome 72.0%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.5%
Neutral zone
Strome 53.0%
Result
Dylan Strome favored at 55.8%
55.8%
44.2%
Strome
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
20
-
23
(43 meetings)
20
23
Strome
Hertl
Last 10: Strome 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Strome
12
5
Strome
Hertl
17 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
9
Strome
Hertl
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
9
Strome
Hertl
15 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Strome
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (6,371)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.8%
Power Play
58.6% (1,532)
59.2% (1,995)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
45.6% (68)
46.3% (806)
-0.7%
On even strength, Hertl has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Strome is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (5,283).
Strome shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Strome
Hertl
Home
51.1% (3,968)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
52.3% (4,003)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Strome
Hertl
P1
50.5%
53.6%
P2
52.3%
54.2%
P3
52.3%
55.3%
OT
52.7%
46.9%
Final 5 min
52.4%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Strome
64.0%▲
56.5%
51.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 14:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 27, 2026 | 1 | 00:41 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 17, 2024 | 2 | 12:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 17:54 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 07:17 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:36 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:41 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:33 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:42 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:28 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 14:22 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 3 | 12:10 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 18:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 29, 2023 | 2 | 16:09 | Defensive | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 3 | 09:11 | Neutral | Dylan Strome |
| Mar 4, 2023 | 2 | 18:50 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |
| Apr 23, 2022 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Dylan Strome |