Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (43.9% vs 43.0%). Luostarinen wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Cates shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 44.2% vs Cates 43.2% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Luostarinen 54.1%
Defensive zone
Cates 53.5%
Neutral zone
Cates 53.3%
Result
Noah Cates favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Luostarinen
Cates
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Luostarinen
Cates
Last 7: Luostarinen 3-4 Cates
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
1
0
Luostarinen
Cates
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Cates
0
2
Luostarinen
Cates
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Luostarinen
Cates
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Cates
Edge
Even Strength
44.6% (1,784)
44.1% (2,786)
+0.5%
Power Play
43.5% (69)
42.9% (254)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (206)
34.9% (373)
+3.0%
On penalty kill, Luostarinen has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Cates shoots left. Luostarinen is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,369).
Luostarinen shoots left. Cates is 41.9% vs left-shot opponents (2,307).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Cates
Home
44.8% (1,015)
43.9% (1,708)
Away
43.0% (1,044)
42.2% (1,705)
By Period
Luostarinen
Cates
P1
43.0%
44.5%
P2
45.4%
43.7%
P3
43.2%
41.2%
OT
37.5%
29.4%
Final 5 min
44.6%
41.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
46.0%▲
44.5%
43.9%
Cates
50.0%▲
45.5%
43.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 2 | 08:42 | Neutral | Noah Cates |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 17:30 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |
| Mar 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:54 | Defensive | Noah Cates |