Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +14.4% FO% edge overall. Luostarinen wins 44.8% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Luostarinen 46.5% vs Hertl 57.5% (-14.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 86.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 65.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 78.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 78.0%
22.0%
78.0%
Luostarinen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Luostarinen
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Luostarinen
1
0
Luostarinen
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Luostarinen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (92)
58.7% (858)
-13.0%
Power Play
45.0% (20)
55.8% (285)
-10.8%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
62.9% (35)
-34.3%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +34.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Luostarinen is 44.8% vs left-shot opponents (87).
Luostarinen shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Luostarinen
Hertl
Home
44.4% (36)
60.1% (599)
Away
43.3% (90)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Luostarinen
Hertl
P1
38.9%
52.4%
P2
44.7%
63.9%
P3
45.1%
58.5%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.0%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Luostarinen
46.0%▲
44.5%
43.7%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:49 | Neutral | Eetu Luostarinen |