Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.7% vs Lindholm 55.3% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 65.6%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 52.4%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 50.7%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Nelson
Lindholm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Nelson
Lindholm
Last 9: Nelson 5-4 Lindholm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Lindholm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lindholm
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lindholm
Edge
Even Strength
50.8% (917)
54.8% (766)
-4.0%
Power Play
59.1% (176)
62.3% (175)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
43.1% (204)
52.2% (92)
-9.1%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +9.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lindholm shoots right. Nelson is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (453).
Nelson shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lindholm
Home
52.6% (639)
56.6% (578)
Away
48.9% (658)
54.9% (455)
By Period
Nelson
Lindholm
P1
48.3%
55.2%
P2
54.0%
56.3%
P3
50.4%
56.3%
OT
41.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
51.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
54.0%▼
55.5%
50.7%
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:31 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 03:01 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 13:14 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 03:28 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |