Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Lindholm wins 58.3% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Tavares 56.8% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 55.4%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 63.0%
Neutral zone
Tavares 58.7%
Result
John Tavares favored at 53.4%
46.6%
53.4%
Lindholm
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Lindholm
Tavares
Last 6: Lindholm 4-2 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
1
Lindholm
Tavares
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
1
0
Lindholm
Tavares
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
57.7% (975)
-2.9%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
56.0% (250)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
52.2% (23)
+0.0%
On power play, Lindholm has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lindholm is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (753).
Lindholm shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Tavares
Home
56.6% (578)
57.4% (636)
Away
54.9% (455)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Lindholm
Tavares
P1
55.2%
57.5%
P2
56.3%
56.9%
P3
56.3%
57.5%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |