Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (53.9% vs 54.4%). Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (78% H2H, 68 meetings). Lindholm wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.9% vs Tavares 54.4% (-0.5%)
H2H factor
Lindholm leads 100-80 in 180 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 74.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 66.1%
Neutral zone
Tavares 56.9%
Result
John Tavares favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Lindholm
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
100
-
80
(180 meetings)
100
80
Lindholm
Tavares
Last 10: Lindholm 6-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
31
50
Lindholm
Tavares
81 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
53
15
Lindholm
Tavares
68 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
16
15
Lindholm
Tavares
31 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (8,549)
54.0% (16,150)
-0.2%
Power Play
59.4% (1,745)
56.4% (4,292)
+3.0%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (1,619)
50.5% (624)
-2.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +3.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Lindholm is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (9,165).
Lindholm shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Tavares
Home
54.2% (5,980)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
53.6% (5,933)
52.7% (10,570)
By Period
Lindholm
Tavares
P1
54.2%
55.0%
P2
54.5%
54.1%
P3
53.0%
54.0%
OT
53.6%
55.9%
Final 5 min
52.7%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
53.9%
Tavares
44.0%▼
52.5%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2026 | 3 | 18:37 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 19:27 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 16:39 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 24, 2026 | 1 | 04:37 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 19:04 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:42 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 15:23 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:32 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:01 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 10:59 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 1 | 17:50 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 10:43 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 19:21 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:17 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 18:22 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 17:55 | Offensive | John Tavares |