Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +9.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 53.8% vs Bourque 46.4% (+9.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 63.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 69.2%
Neutral zone
Bourque 72.1%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Lindholm
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lindholm
Bourque
Last 5: Lindholm 1-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
3
Lindholm
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
53.5% (555)
46.1% (167)
+7.4%
Power Play
61.1% (113)
12.5% (8)
+48.6%
Penalty Kill
49.2% (61)
40.0% (5)
+9.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +48.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Lindholm is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (208).
Lindholm shoots right. Bourque is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (53).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Bourque
Home
55.5% (431)
40.0% (85)
Away
52.7% (298)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Lindholm
Bourque
P1
52.3%
40.4%
P2
54.8%
38.0%
P3
56.3%
52.1%
Final 5 min
58.0%
40.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
52.0%▬
52.5%
54.3%
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
44.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |