Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Bourque on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Bourque 46.5% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 73.7%
Defensive zone
Bourque 71.4%
Neutral zone
Bourque 74.7%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Lindholm
Bourque
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Lindholm
Bourque
Last 5: Lindholm 1-4 Bourque
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Lindholm
Bourque
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Bourque
0
3
Lindholm
Bourque
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Bourque
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
46.8% (186)
+8.0%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
23.5% (17)
+38.8%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
42.9% (7)
+9.3%
On power play, Lindholm has a +38.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bourque shoots right. Lindholm is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Lindholm shoots right. Bourque is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Bourque
Home
56.6% (578)
41.5% (106)
Away
54.9% (455)
48.1% (104)
By Period
Lindholm
Bourque
P1
55.2%
40.6%
P2
56.3%
39.0%
P3
56.3%
51.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
44.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Bourque
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:15 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 09:12 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:41 | Offensive | Mavrik Bourque |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mavrik Bourque |