Elias Lindholm vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Elias Lindholm holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Lindholm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs MacKinnon 51.0% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lindholm 62.0%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 87.9%
Neutral zone
Lindholm 70.6%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 71.7%
71.7%
28.3%
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Last 8: Lindholm 5-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
3
Lindholm
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
3
0
Lindholm
MacKinnon
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
49.7% (1,038)
+5.1%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
63.7% (157)
-1.4%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
34.4% (32)
+17.8%
On penalty kill, Lindholm has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Lindholm is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Lindholm shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (341).
Home / Away
Lindholm
MacKinnon
Home
56.6% (578)
53.1% (618)
Away
54.9% (455)
49.1% (609)
By Period
Lindholm
MacKinnon
P1
55.2%
49.3%
P2
56.3%
53.0%
P3
56.3%
50.7%
OT
0.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
54.8%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
50.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 09:56 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 04:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:58 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 00:54 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:15 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 11:18 | Offensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 1 | 00:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |