Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.9% vs 56.5%). Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Lindholm 55.3% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-0.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 53.2%
Defensive zone
Lindholm 67.3%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 51.0%
Result
Elias Lindholm favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Lindholm
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Lindholm
Stamkos
Last 7: Lindholm 4-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
3
Lindholm
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lindholm
2
0
Lindholm
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Lindholm
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (766)
57.1% (368)
-2.3%
Power Play
62.3% (175)
55.2% (96)
+7.1%
Penalty Kill
52.2% (92)
50.0% (10)
+2.2%
On power play, Lindholm has a +7.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Lindholm is 49.3% vs right-shot opponents (280).
Lindholm shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Lindholm
Stamkos
Home
56.6% (578)
53.9% (230)
Away
54.9% (455)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Lindholm
Stamkos
P1
55.2%
56.7%
P2
56.3%
54.1%
P3
56.3%
59.2%
OT
0.0%
62.5%
Final 5 min
54.8%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Lindholm
64.0%▲
60.5%
55.9%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 03:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 19:18 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:45 | Neutral | Elias Lindholm |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 06:04 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 27, 2026 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Elias Lindholm |