Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Pettersson wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Duchene 51.8% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.5%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 52.4%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 52.1%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Pettersson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Pettersson
Duchene
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (834)
51.1% (366)
-5.2%
Power Play
55.1% (256)
61.5% (65)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (112)
16.7% (6)
+19.0%
On penalty kill, Pettersson has a +19.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (779).
Pettersson shoots left. Duchene is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (272).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Duchene
Home
49.1% (607)
51.7% (201)
Away
44.7% (595)
52.5% (236)
By Period
Pettersson
Duchene
P1
45.5%
49.0%
P2
48.0%
57.1%
P3
47.1%
49.2%
OT
47.1%
60.0%
Final 5 min
43.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
Duchene
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 17:42 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 2, 2026 | 2 | 07:49 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |