Scouting Report
Elias Pettersson holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Marner 42.5% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 77.1%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 77.1%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 77.4%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 77.2%
77.2%
22.8%
Pettersson
Marner
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Pettersson
Marner
Last 8: Pettersson 6-2 Marner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
1
Pettersson
Marner
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
0
Pettersson
Marner
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pettersson
2
1
Pettersson
Marner
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Marner
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (834)
40.8% (316)
+5.1%
Power Play
55.1% (256)
40.0% (5)
+15.1%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (112)
25.0% (12)
+10.7%
On power play, Pettersson has a +15.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Marner shoots right. Pettersson is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (421).
Pettersson shoots left. Marner is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (247).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Marner
Home
49.1% (607)
36.0% (186)
Away
44.7% (595)
45.6% (147)
By Period
Pettersson
Marner
P1
45.5%
40.7%
P2
48.0%
41.0%
P3
47.1%
38.6%
Final 5 min
43.6%
41.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
Marner
40.0%▼
41.5%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 02:13 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:45 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 07:39 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 05:24 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 05:09 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 11:25 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |