Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +10.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Pettersson wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.3% vs Frost 56.3% (-10.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 88.7%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 84.6%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 83.9%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 85.8%
85.8%
14.2%
Pettersson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
8
(9 meetings)
1
8
Pettersson
Frost
Last 9: Pettersson 1-8 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Pettersson
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Pettersson
Frost
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
2
Pettersson
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (817)
55.8% (745)
-9.5%
Power Play
54.9% (255)
60.5% (172)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (110)
88.9% (9)
-54.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +54.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Pettersson is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (771).
Pettersson shoots left. Frost is 58.0% vs left-shot opponents (636).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Frost
Home
49.1% (607)
57.3% (497)
Away
44.9% (575)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Pettersson
Frost
P1
46.1%
60.1%
P2
48.1%
56.0%
P3
46.8%
54.7%
OT
47.1%
63.6%
Final 5 min
44.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▼
53.5%
47.0%
Frost
68.0%▲
62.0%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 15:44 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 3 | 14:29 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 01:52 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 10:18 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 03:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:29 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |