Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Pettersson on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 10 meetings). Pettersson wins 46.1% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 46.0% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Pettersson leads 16-14 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 69.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 63.5%
Neutral zone
Dowd 66.9%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Pettersson
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
14
(30 meetings)
16
14
Pettersson
Dowd
Last 10: Pettersson 4-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pettersson
10
0
Pettersson
Dowd
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
9
Pettersson
Dowd
10 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Pettersson
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
45.3% (4,613)
52.3% (6,036)
-7.0%
Power Play
54.5% (554)
56.1% (164)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (243)
44.1% (1,638)
-5.4%
On even strength, Dowd has a +7.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Pettersson is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,768).
Pettersson shoots left. Dowd is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (5,158).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Dowd
Home
46.8% (2,757)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
45.2% (2,653)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Pettersson
Dowd
P1
44.7%
51.5%
P2
46.1%
50.4%
P3
47.4%
50.3%
OT
39.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
45.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 11:09 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 07:48 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:12 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 04:19 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 18:12 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 09:43 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:58 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 13:42 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 19:36 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 17:11 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 25, 2025 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 17:25 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 11:00 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 15:51 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:11 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |