Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Pettersson wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.3% vs Paul 53.6% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 69.9%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 72.7%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 69.9%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 72.7%
72.7%
27.3%
Pettersson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Pettersson
Paul
Last 5: Pettersson 1-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Pettersson
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (817)
53.7% (354)
-7.4%
Power Play
54.9% (255)
59.0% (61)
-4.1%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (110)
52.9% (34)
-18.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pettersson is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (771).
Pettersson shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (321).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Paul
Home
49.1% (607)
55.1% (216)
Away
44.9% (575)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Pettersson
Paul
P1
46.1%
54.9%
P2
48.1%
54.5%
P3
46.8%
54.3%
OT
47.1%
44.4%
Final 5 min
44.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▼
53.5%
47.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |