Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Pettersson wins 45.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 46.1% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.3%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 10-6 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Pettersson 80.6%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 63.5%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 73.8%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 70.4%
70.4%
29.6%
Pettersson
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
10
(16 meetings)
6
10
Pettersson
Paul
Last 10: Pettersson 3-7 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pettersson
Paul
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
6
Pettersson
Paul
8 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Pettersson
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (4,596)
52.6% (3,823)
-7.2%
Power Play
54.4% (553)
56.2% (484)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
38.2% (241)
46.9% (576)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Pettersson is 45.9% vs left-shot opponents (3,632).
Pettersson shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,089).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Paul
Home
46.8% (2,757)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
45.2% (2,633)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Pettersson
Paul
P1
44.8%
53.8%
P2
46.1%
51.0%
P3
47.4%
52.2%
OT
39.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
46.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
50.0%▼
53.5%
46.0%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:03 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 12:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 15:18 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 00:57 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 14:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 18:00 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 16:04 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 3 | 11:02 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 8, 2024 | 1 | 17:36 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 05:18 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 04:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 16:52 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:22 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 2 | 19:14 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 18, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Elias Pettersson |
| Jan 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:10 | Neutral | Nick Paul |