Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Pettersson wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pettersson 47.2% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pettersson 68.6%
Defensive zone
Pettersson 73.6%
Neutral zone
Pettersson 73.7%
Result
Elias Pettersson favored at 71.4%
71.4%
28.6%
Pettersson
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Pettersson
Hertl
Last 9: Pettersson 3-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
3
Pettersson
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Pettersson
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Pettersson
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pettersson
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (834)
58.7% (858)
-12.8%
Power Play
55.1% (256)
55.8% (285)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
35.7% (112)
62.9% (35)
-27.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Pettersson is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (779).
Pettersson shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
Pettersson
Hertl
Home
49.1% (607)
60.1% (599)
Away
44.7% (595)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Pettersson
Hertl
P1
45.5%
52.4%
P2
48.0%
63.9%
P3
47.1%
58.5%
OT
47.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
43.6%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pettersson
44.0%▼
52.5%
46.9%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 14:56 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 08:00 | Offensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 3 | 04:52 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 19:48 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 17:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 15:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 2 | 02:24 | Defensive | Elias Pettersson |
| Mar 30, 2026 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 00:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |