Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hughes on offensive-zone draws (70% H2H, 10 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hughes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Hughes 36.5% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Hughes leads 13-9 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Hughes 85.4%
Defensive zone
Hughes 54.7%
Neutral zone
Hughes 71.5%
Result
Jack Hughes favored at 73.3%
26.7%
73.3%
Rodrigues
Hughes
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
13
(22 meetings)
9
13
Rodrigues
Hughes
Last 10: Rodrigues 5-5 Hughes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hughes
3
7
Rodrigues
Hughes
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
4
2
Rodrigues
Hughes
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hughes
2
4
Rodrigues
Hughes
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hughes
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
36.0% (2,926)
+10.2%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
38.8% (224)
+6.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
31.0% (42)
+11.7%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +11.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hughes shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hughes is 38.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,243).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hughes
Home
47.1% (1,836)
36.8% (1,681)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
35.3% (1,511)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hughes
P1
46.9%
36.9%
P2
46.1%
33.4%
P3
44.4%
38.2%
OT
50.0%
37.5%
Final 5 min
48.0%
34.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Hughes
38.0%▬
37.0%
36.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 2 | 00:47 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 12:10 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Jan 14, 2025 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 22, 2021 | 3 | 06:34 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:48 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 20, 2021 | 2 | 04:19 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 11, 2021 | 3 | 12:03 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Apr 9, 2021 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 21, 2021 | 2 | 18:38 | Offensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 00:51 | Neutral | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:44 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 07:41 | Defensive | Jack Hughes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 07:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 00:57 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 05:30 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |