Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Tavares 57.8% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 59.4%
Neutral zone
Tavares 59.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (525)
59.0% (691)
-12.1%
Power Play
48.1% (54)
57.2% (173)
-9.1%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (57)
63.6% (11)
-30.3%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +30.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (296).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
46.3% (354)
58.0% (500)
Away
45.0% (282)
59.7% (375)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
47.7%
59.5%
P2
46.0%
58.5%
P3
43.2%
58.2%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
57.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.8%
Tavares
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |