Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Tavares 56.8% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Tavares 77.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 61.3%
Neutral zone
Tavares 57.8%
Result
John Tavares favored at 50.7%
49.3%
50.7%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Rodrigues
Tavares
Last 8: Rodrigues 4-4 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Tavares
0
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Tavares
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
1
2
Rodrigues
Tavares
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
57.7% (975)
-9.9%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
56.0% (250)
-8.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
52.2% (23)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Tavares has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 50.8% vs right-shot opponents (437).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
47.9% (445)
57.4% (636)
Away
45.4% (346)
57.2% (612)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
48.3%
57.5%
P2
47.0%
56.9%
P3
44.8%
57.5%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |