Scouting Report
John Tavares holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Tavares on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Tavares shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Tavares 54.4% (-8.6%)
H2H factor
Tavares leads 24-23 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Tavares 66.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 65.6%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 53.5%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 52.9%
52.9%
47.1%
Rodrigues
Tavares
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
24
(47 meetings)
23
24
Rodrigues
Tavares
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Tavares
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
7
7
Rodrigues
Tavares
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
12
9
Rodrigues
Tavares
21 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Tavares
4
8
Rodrigues
Tavares
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Tavares
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
54.0% (16,169)
-7.8%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
56.4% (4,298)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
50.5% (624)
-7.8%
On power play, Tavares has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Tavares shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Tavares is 51.0% vs right-shot opponents (7,570).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Tavares
Home
47.1% (1,836)
56.1% (10,525)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
52.7% (10,595)
By Period
Rodrigues
Tavares
P1
46.9%
55.0%
P2
46.1%
54.1%
P3
44.4%
54.0%
OT
50.0%
55.9%
Final 5 min
48.0%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Tavares
48.0%▼
54.0%
54.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:36 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 07:02 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 08:14 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 3 | 17:50 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:17 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 3 | 12:15 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 01:03 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 15:52 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 1 | 13:11 | Defensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 3 | 15:54 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:48 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 13, 2025 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 16:21 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 31, 2022 | 2 | 03:21 | Offensive | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 03:33 | Neutral | John Tavares |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 01:05 | Defensive | John Tavares |