Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on defensive-zone draws (92% H2H, 13 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Eller 50.5% (-4.7%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 19-11 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 83.0%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 76.2%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 77.3%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 79.5%
79.5%
20.5%
Rodrigues
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
19
(30 meetings)
11
19
Rodrigues
Eller
Last 10: Rodrigues 4-6 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
8
6
Rodrigues
Eller
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
12
Rodrigues
Eller
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
1
Rodrigues
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
51.1% (10,321)
-4.9%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
52.8% (621)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
46.6% (1,759)
-3.9%
On power play, Eller has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Eller is 49.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,587).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Eller
Home
47.1% (1,836)
51.4% (6,122)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
49.7% (6,607)
By Period
Rodrigues
Eller
P1
46.9%
51.2%
P2
46.1%
50.1%
P3
44.4%
50.2%
OT
50.0%
56.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Eller
44.0%▼
51.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 11, 2025 | 1 | 13:32 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 09:56 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 12:01 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 11:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 13:22 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Feb 4, 2025 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 2 | 12:17 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 24, 2023 | 1 | 15:45 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 3 | 01:27 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 2 | 12:37 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 19, 2022 | 1 | 09:56 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 05:40 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 3 | 05:33 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 2 | 07:07 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 10, 2021 | 1 | 03:20 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:06 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 19:30 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 1, 2019 | 1 | 16:44 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |