Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Paul 53.6% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 54.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.2%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 56.7%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 51.0%
49.0%
51.0%
Rodrigues
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Rodrigues
Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Rodrigues
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Paul
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
53.7% (354)
-5.9%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
59.0% (61)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
52.9% (34)
-16.1%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Paul is 54.8% vs right-shot opponents (124).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Paul
Home
47.9% (445)
55.1% (216)
Away
45.4% (346)
53.6% (233)
By Period
Rodrigues
Paul
P1
48.3%
54.9%
P2
47.0%
54.5%
P3
44.8%
54.3%
OT
50.0%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.3%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |