Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 8 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-6.5%)
H2H factor
Rodrigues leads 11-8 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 64.7%
Defensive zone
Paul 85.5%
Neutral zone
Paul 76.2%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 74.3%
25.7%
74.3%
Rodrigues
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
8
(19 meetings)
11
8
Rodrigues
Paul
Last 10: Rodrigues 6-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
5
3
Rodrigues
Paul
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Rodrigues
Paul
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
2
Rodrigues
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
52.6% (3,823)
-6.4%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
56.2% (484)
-11.4%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
46.9% (576)
-4.2%
On power play, Paul has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,791).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Paul
Home
47.1% (1,836)
52.8% (2,445)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Rodrigues
Paul
P1
46.9%
53.8%
P2
46.1%
51.0%
P3
44.4%
52.2%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
51.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Paul
54.0%▼
56.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:14 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 18:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 2 | 06:39 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 12:49 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 05:03 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 1 | 18:26 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:23 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 2 | 03:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 13:54 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 07:41 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Mar 16, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 10, 2022 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 3 | 11:13 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 13, 2021 | 2 | 15:03 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 3 | 16:50 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 16, 2019 | 1 | 00:10 | Offensive | Nick Paul |