Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Buchnevich 43.3% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 56.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 80.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 69.3%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 69.1%
69.1%
30.9%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
40.5% (190)
+7.3%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
42.9% (14)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
30.0% (10)
+6.8%
On even strength, Rodrigues has a +7.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (81).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
47.9% (445)
40.7% (118)
Away
45.4% (346)
39.6% (96)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
48.3%
42.3%
P2
47.0%
37.5%
P3
44.8%
40.3%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
40.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
40.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |