Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +11.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Buchnevich 36.0% (+11.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 63.1%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 84.0%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 81.9%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 79.1%
79.1%
20.9%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
34.5% (931)
+11.7%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
44.2% (52)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
24.3% (37)
+18.4%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +18.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 36.8% vs right-shot opponents (348).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
47.1% (1,836)
35.6% (517)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
33.6% (503)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
46.9%
35.2%
P2
46.1%
34.8%
P3
44.4%
33.4%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.0%
38.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Buchnevich
48.0%▲
41.0%
34.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |