Evan Rodrigues vs Pavel Buchnevich
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Evan Rodrigues holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.0% vs left-shot opponents — Buchnevich shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 45.7% vs Buchnevich 35.5% (+11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 63.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 84.4%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 83.7%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 80.5%
80.5%
19.5%
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Buchnevich
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Buchnevich
0
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
1
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (2,771)
33.7% (819)
+12.2%
Power Play
44.8% (281)
44.7% (47)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
42.1% (209)
21.9% (32)
+20.2%
On penalty kill, Rodrigues has a +20.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Buchnevich shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,312).
Rodrigues shoots right. Buchnevich is 36.0% vs right-shot opponents (314).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
Home
46.7% (1,745)
34.9% (459)
Away
44.3% (1,516)
32.8% (439)
By Period
Rodrigues
Buchnevich
P1
46.7%
33.9%
P2
45.9%
33.9%
P3
44.0%
33.6%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
37.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.6%
Buchnevich
40.0%▬
41.0%
33.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 16:46 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 00:41 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 09:44 | Offensive | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 07:38 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 1 | 04:46 | Neutral | Pavel Buchnevich |
| Dec 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:59 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |