Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Rodrigues on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Aho 50.5% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Aho 83.7%
Defensive zone
Aho 55.7%
Neutral zone
Aho 68.0%
Result
Sebastian Aho favored at 67.1%
32.9%
67.1%
Rodrigues
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Rodrigues
Aho
Last 6: Rodrigues 4-2 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Aho
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
3
0
Rodrigues
Aho
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
1
Rodrigues
Aho
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
50.5% (878)
-2.7%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
53.5% (144)
-6.3%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
44.3% (61)
-7.5%
On penalty kill, Aho has a +7.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Aho
Home
47.9% (445)
53.8% (571)
Away
45.4% (346)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Rodrigues
Aho
P1
48.3%
49.0%
P2
47.0%
51.7%
P3
44.8%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.3%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2026 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:02 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | OT | 04:17 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 17:35 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 15:07 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |