Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings). Rodrigues wins 42.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.3% vs Hertl 55.4% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 63.6%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 62.0%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 59.5%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Rodrigues
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
7
(12 meetings)
5
7
Rodrigues
Hertl
Last 10: Rodrigues 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Rodrigues
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Rodrigues
Hertl
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (250)
54.1% (717)
-8.5%
Power Play
40.0% (30)
61.9% (210)
-21.9%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (2)
58.1% (31)
-8.1%
On power play, Hertl has a +21.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rodrigues is 42.6% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hertl is 56.6% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hertl
Home
46.5% (142)
58.1% (492)
Away
43.6% (140)
53.6% (466)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hertl
P1
42.9%
57.1%
P2
50.0%
54.0%
P3
42.4%
56.6%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.5%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
44.0%▬
44.0%
45.0%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
55.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 15:35 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 2 | 03:22 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 26, 2025 | 1 | 11:30 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 17:57 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 12:21 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:38 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 03:20 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 02:05 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 18:16 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |