Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Hertl 57.5% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 81.7%
Defensive zone
Rodrigues 66.4%
Neutral zone
Hertl 54.9%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Rodrigues
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Rodrigues
Hertl
Last 6: Rodrigues 3-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Rodrigues
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
2
0
Rodrigues
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Rodrigues
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
58.7% (858)
-10.9%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
55.8% (285)
-8.6%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
62.9% (35)
-26.1%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +26.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Hertl
Home
47.9% (445)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.4% (346)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Rodrigues
Hertl
P1
48.3%
52.4%
P2
47.0%
63.9%
P3
44.8%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 10, 2025 | 3 | 14:29 | Neutral | Evan Rodrigues |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 07:28 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 10, 2025 | 2 | 05:33 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:49 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 17:43 | Defensive | Evan Rodrigues |