Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 47.1% vs Kozak 49.7% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 75.5%
Defensive zone
Kozak 54.8%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 62.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Rodrigues
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
Kozak
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Kozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
47.8% (651)
49.3% (294)
-1.5%
Power Play
47.2% (72)
60.0% (5)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
36.8% (68)
50.0% (40)
-13.2%
On penalty kill, Kozak has a +13.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Rodrigues shoots right. Kozak is 54.0% vs right-shot opponents (100).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Kozak
Home
47.9% (445)
45.5% (145)
Away
45.4% (346)
52.6% (194)
By Period
Rodrigues
Kozak
P1
48.3%
53.4%
P2
47.0%
50.0%
P3
44.8%
44.3%
Final 5 min
50.3%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |