Scouting Report
Tyson Kozak holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Rodrigues wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Kozak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rodrigues 46.0% vs Kozak 48.8% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Rodrigues 77.0%
Defensive zone
Kozak 56.7%
Neutral zone
Rodrigues 61.6%
Result
Evan Rodrigues favored at 57.4%
57.4%
42.6%
Rodrigues
Kozak
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Rodrigues
Kozak
Last 5: Rodrigues 1-4 Kozak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rodrigues
1
0
Rodrigues
Kozak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kozak
0
2
Rodrigues
Kozak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rodrigues
Kozak
Edge
Even Strength
46.2% (2,897)
48.3% (431)
-2.1%
Power Play
44.8% (299)
62.5% (8)
-17.7%
Penalty Kill
42.7% (220)
48.9% (45)
-6.2%
On power play, Kozak has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kozak shoots left. Rodrigues is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (2,436).
Rodrigues shoots right. Kozak is 48.8% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Rodrigues
Kozak
Home
47.1% (1,836)
47.6% (229)
Away
44.4% (1,580)
49.4% (255)
By Period
Rodrigues
Kozak
P1
46.9%
54.4%
P2
46.1%
45.7%
P3
44.4%
45.7%
Final 5 min
48.0%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rodrigues
46.0%▼
49.0%
45.8%
Kozak
50.0%▬
49.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | 3 | 14:27 | Offensive | Evan Rodrigues |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 2 | 04:07 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:09 | Defensive | Tyson Kozak |
| Oct 18, 2025 | 3 | 05:01 | Neutral | Tyson Kozak |