Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — McLeod shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs McLeod 47.4% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 77.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 76.0%
Neutral zone
Malkin 54.6%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 62.6%
37.4%
62.6%
Malkin
McLeod
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Malkin
McLeod
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
0
1
Malkin
McLeod
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
2
Malkin
McLeod
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
McLeod
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
49.0% (827)
-3.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
44.0% (91)
-9.4%
On power play, McLeod has a +9.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McLeod shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
Home / Away
Malkin
McLeod
Home
50.4% (113)
48.5% (619)
Away
39.4% (132)
45.9% (571)
By Period
Malkin
McLeod
P1
47.7%
52.7%
P2
44.9%
43.9%
P3
40.0%
45.8%
OT
100.0%
35.7%
Final 5 min
35.3%
44.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 10:24 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 03:22 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 08:06 | Defensive | Evgeni Malkin |