Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Malkin on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Malkin wins 45.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Malkin 46.1% vs Monahan 52.5% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Malkin 50.9%
Defensive zone
Monahan 80.6%
Neutral zone
Monahan 70.4%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
Malkin
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Malkin
Monahan
Last 5: Malkin 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Malkin
2
1
Malkin
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Malkin
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Malkin
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
45.7% (219)
53.0% (874)
-7.3%
Power Play
34.6% (26)
54.7% (161)
-20.1%
On power play, Monahan has a +20.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Malkin is 45.2% vs left-shot opponents (177).
Malkin shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
Malkin
Monahan
Home
50.4% (113)
53.8% (558)
Away
39.4% (132)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Malkin
Monahan
P1
47.7%
49.5%
P2
44.9%
54.8%
P3
40.0%
52.8%
OT
100.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
35.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Malkin
36.0%▼
46.0%
44.5%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 04:42 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 10:46 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 25, 2025 | OT | 02:21 | Offensive | Evgeni Malkin |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 1 | 13:30 | Neutral | Evgeni Malkin |