Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Nazar wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Dowd 48.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 86.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 85.3%
Neutral zone
Nazar 54.8%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Nazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nazar
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
0
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Dowd
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
51.0% (671)
-3.8%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
0.0% (2)
+51.0%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
41.5% (224)
-11.3%
On power play, Nazar has a +51.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nazar is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Nazar shoots right. Dowd is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Nazar
Dowd
Home
45.0% (329)
48.2% (471)
Away
48.5% (431)
48.8% (426)
By Period
Nazar
Dowd
P1
47.8%
48.3%
P2
43.4%
46.8%
P3
48.4%
51.0%
OT
75.0%
30.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
51.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |