Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Dowd 50.7% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 92.8%
Defensive zone
Dowd 76.9%
Neutral zone
Nazar 58.7%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Nazar
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nazar
Dowd
Last 9: Nazar 3-6 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Nazar
Dowd
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nazar
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Nazar
Dowd
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
52.3% (6,036)
-6.0%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
56.1% (164)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
44.1% (1,638)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Dowd has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Nazar is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nazar shoots right. Dowd is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,681).
Home / Away
Nazar
Dowd
Home
44.2% (536)
51.9% (3,917)
Away
47.4% (627)
49.5% (3,922)
By Period
Nazar
Dowd
P1
47.7%
51.5%
P2
42.2%
50.4%
P3
47.1%
50.3%
OT
66.7%
45.9%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Dowd
40.0%▼
47.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:44 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 09:36 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 04:03 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 3 | 06:13 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 12:21 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 4, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 18:39 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 08:27 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |