Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nazar on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Nazar wins 53.6% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Roy 51.9% (-5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 62.2%
Defensive zone
Roy 82.0%
Neutral zone
Roy 58.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 66.3%
33.7%
66.3%
Nazar
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nazar
Roy
Last 6: Nazar 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nazar
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
51.9% (547)
-4.7%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
54.1% (37)
-3.1%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
53.3% (92)
-23.1%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +23.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Nazar is 53.6% vs right-shot opponents (224).
Nazar shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Nazar
Roy
Home
45.0% (329)
54.0% (328)
Away
48.5% (431)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Nazar
Roy
P1
47.8%
53.5%
P2
43.4%
51.6%
P3
48.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
45.1%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 17:04 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:59 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:51 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:34 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:31 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 06:57 | Defensive | Frank Nazar |