Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 10-7 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 59.9%
Defensive zone
Nazar 60.2%
Neutral zone
Nazar 58.7%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 59.4%
59.4%
40.6%
Nazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
10
(17 meetings)
7
10
Nazar
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nazar 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
0
Nazar
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
6
Nazar
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nazar
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
55.7% (856)
-8.5%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
57.5% (233)
-6.5%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
50.0% (144)
-19.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +19.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Nazar
O'Reilly
Home
45.0% (329)
55.5% (616)
Away
48.5% (431)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Nazar
O'Reilly
P1
47.8%
58.1%
P2
43.4%
54.9%
P3
48.4%
53.9%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.1%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |