Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-10.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Nazar 72.4%
Defensive zone
Nazar 74.0%
Neutral zone
Nazar 70.4%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Nazar
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
12
(20 meetings)
8
12
Nazar
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nazar 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
3
1
Nazar
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
7
Nazar
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nazar
5
4
Nazar
O'Reilly
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
56.2% (15,290)
-9.9%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
58.7% (3,457)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
51.4% (2,826)
-15.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
Home / Away
Nazar
O'Reilly
Home
44.2% (536)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
47.4% (627)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Nazar
O'Reilly
P1
47.7%
55.6%
P2
42.2%
57.0%
P3
47.1%
55.0%
OT
66.7%
62.2%
Final 5 min
46.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:18 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 15:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 06:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 22, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 13:07 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 10:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:25 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 12:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 08:17 | Neutral | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 14:58 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 1 | 18:57 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |