Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 47.3% vs Monahan 52.5% (-5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 62.8%
Defensive zone
Nazar 65.1%
Neutral zone
Nazar 65.2%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Nazar
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Monahan
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.2% (574)
53.0% (874)
-5.8%
Power Play
51.0% (143)
54.7% (161)
-3.7%
Penalty Kill
30.2% (43)
47.5% (101)
-17.3%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +17.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nazar is 44.2% vs left-shot opponents (536).
Nazar shoots right. Monahan is 52.1% vs right-shot opponents (426).
Home / Away
Nazar
Monahan
Home
45.0% (329)
53.8% (558)
Away
48.5% (431)
51.7% (578)
By Period
Nazar
Monahan
P1
47.8%
49.5%
P2
43.4%
54.8%
P3
48.4%
52.8%
OT
75.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
45.1%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
47.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |