Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +5.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Nazar wins 44.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nazar 46.2% vs Monahan 51.2% (-5.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nazar 72.6%
Defensive zone
Nazar 77.4%
Neutral zone
Nazar 71.1%
Result
Frank Nazar favored at 73.7%
73.7%
26.3%
Nazar
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Nazar
Monahan
Last 9: Nazar 2-7 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nazar
2
1
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
3
Nazar
Monahan
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nazar
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
46.3% (907)
51.1% (11,407)
-4.8%
Power Play
48.1% (183)
53.6% (2,582)
-5.5%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (73)
45.9% (772)
-10.3%
On penalty kill, Monahan has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Nazar is 44.3% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Nazar shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Nazar
Monahan
Home
44.2% (536)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
47.4% (627)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Nazar
Monahan
P1
47.7%
51.0%
P2
42.2%
51.7%
P3
47.1%
51.0%
OT
66.7%
53.5%
Final 5 min
46.0%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nazar
60.0%▲
51.0%
45.9%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:53 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 3 | 05:08 | Offensive | Frank Nazar |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 14:47 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 10:37 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 19:13 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 30, 2026 | 1 | 08:13 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |