Scouting Report
Fraser Minten holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Minten on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.3% vs McBain 46.7% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 76.6%
Defensive zone
Minten 56.4%
Neutral zone
Minten 61.9%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 69.9%
69.9%
30.1%
Minten
McBain
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Minten
McBain
Last 6: Minten 5-1 McBain
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Minten
3
1
Minten
McBain
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
2
0
Minten
McBain
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
McBain
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (841)
48.1% (2,322)
+0.8%
Power Play
47.5% (61)
44.6% (56)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
36.7% (49)
35.6% (309)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McBain shoots left. Minten is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (624).
Minten shoots left. McBain is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (1,692).
Home / Away
Minten
McBain
Home
51.9% (476)
49.1% (1,379)
Away
44.4% (475)
44.0% (1,308)
By Period
Minten
McBain
P1
44.4%
47.1%
P2
46.8%
47.4%
P3
52.3%
45.4%
OT
83.3%
37.5%
Final 5 min
44.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.2%
McBain
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 08:13 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 11:45 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 10:25 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:51 | Offensive | Jack McBain |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:44 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:40 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |