Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +1.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Minten 48.8% vs Foligno 49.9% (-1.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Minten 65.0%
Defensive zone
Foligno 58.6%
Neutral zone
Minten 53.3%
Result
Fraser Minten favored at 58.0%
58.0%
42.0%
Minten
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Minten
Foligno
Last 5: Minten 2-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Minten
Foligno
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Minten
1
0
Minten
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Minten
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Minten
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (651)
49.5% (291)
+0.1%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
55.8% (43)
-7.8%
Penalty Kill
35.6% (45)
47.2% (53)
-11.6%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Minten is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Minten shoots left. Foligno is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (208).
Home / Away
Minten
Foligno
Home
52.4% (349)
48.9% (178)
Away
45.3% (397)
50.7% (209)
By Period
Minten
Foligno
P1
45.4%
43.0%
P2
47.1%
55.9%
P3
52.3%
50.0%
OT
83.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
46.5%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Minten
52.0%▲
50.0%
48.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
50.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2026 | 1 | 11:53 | Offensive | Fraser Minten |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:37 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 14:02 | Defensive | Fraser Minten |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 02:19 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |